Playoff Picture

Two big events this past weekend make the AFC picture suddenly much clearer and the NFC picture somewhat murkier. By losing to the Dolphins, the New England Patriots fall one game back of Pittsburgh for the top seed in the AFC. Because the Steelers already have the tiebreak advantage over the Patriots, Pittsburgh need only win one of the next two games to clinch the top spot. So, it suddenly appears fairly clear that the road to Jacksonville runs through Heinz field again. The week 16 game between the Colts and Chargers will decide each team's positioning for the third and fourth seeds. The Jets need just one more win to claim the fifth seed. So the only remaining drama now is the battle for sixth between reeling Denver, surging Buffalo, and the steady Ravens and Jaguars.

In the NFC, all season the playoff picture has been the Eagles and the battle for the right to lose to the Eagles in the NFC title game. With Terrell Owens out, the picture might be expected to change somewhat. The Eagles are back to being the team they were before T.O., i.e. the one that lost the last three NFC title games. The difference between those years and this one is that there was always a viable second team in the NFC. There really isn't this year. Atlanta is the clear second banana, but they just aren't in the same class as Philadelphia. There's really no one else. The week 16 game between Minnesota and Green Bay will decide the NFC North title, but who really cares. Someone has to win the NFC West. It's a rule. (Believe it or not, if the Cardinals win out and the Rams and Seahawks lose out, Arizona will win the division with a 7-9 record. But it's more likely to be Seattle at 8-8.) But again, who really cares. In the wildcards, whoever loses between Green Bay and Minnesota will likely claim the 5th seed. The drama is again the battle for sixth between Carolina, New Orleans, and St. Louis. Carolina and New Orleans will face off in week 17, and that game could decide it.

So, how will the playoffs break down?

AFC

1. Pittsburgh
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. San Diego
5. New York Jets
6. Jacksonville

The Jags have the easiest closeout schedule. They should win both games. Jacksonville has beaten Denver and Baltimore, so they get the tie-breaker advantage. Baltimore and Buffalo both have to face Pittsburgh, though Buffalo will likely face a bunch of second stringers. If Buffalo wins out, they would still fall behind Jacksonville because of conference record. If the Jaguars drop a game, the sixth spot would be wide open and Buffalo is the likely winner.

In the wild-card round, Indy will handily beat Jacksonville. The Charger-Jet game would be quite interesting. I will go with the Chargers to keep the Cinderella story alive. The divisional round would then be a rematch of the 1994 AFC title game (San Diego at Pittsburgh) and the 2003 AFC title game (Indianapolis at New England). The Steelers will get long-awaited revenge and the Patriots will continue on, setting up a rematch of the 2001 AFC title game (New England at Pittsburgh). (To keep the rematch theme alive, a Colt victory over New England, quite possible given my rationale below for a Steeler/Patriot game, would setup a rematch of the 1995 AFC title game between the Colts and Steelers.) In my mid-season report, I predicted this game going to New England. But the Patriot secondary is beat up. Ty Law is still out and Tyrone Poole is on IR. That's what used to be the starting corners for New England. Law should be back for the playoffs, but coming off a broken foot probably won't be at full speed. The Pats have gotten by with wide receiver Troy Brown filling in in the secondary, but that won't be good enough for an AFC title game. The Steelers have too many good receivers, and Ben Roethlisberger knows how to get them the ball. Plus they have a crushing running attack. So, I'll revise my prediction and go with the Steelers to win the AFC.

NFC

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Green Bay
   
6. Carolina

Of the teams fighting for the sixth spot, the Panthers are the best. The Vikings will claim the division lead by winning in week 16.

In the wild-card round, Carolina will rout Minnesota and Green Bay will surprise Seattle. The game of the playoffs, then, will be Philadelphia-Carolina in a rematch of the 2003 NFC title game. Carolina is, perhaps, the one team that can challenge a T.O.-less Philadelphia, but all those injuries will finally catch up to the Panthers and the Eagles will win. Meanwhile, Green Bay will face Atlanta in a rematch of an infamous 2002 playoff game (the only Packer playoff loss in Lambeau, ever), and will be denied vengeance by the legs of Michael Vick. In the NFC title game, the stout Eagle defense (they have given up fewer points than anyone else in the NFC) will stifle Vick, the only Falcon weapon. So the Eagles win the NFC, setting up an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl.

Super Bowl
Without T.O., or even with T.O. making his first appearance since breaking his leg, the Eagles just won't have enough offense to challenge Pittsburgh. The Eagle defense is good, but not that good. The Steelers will finally get that elusive one for the thumb.